Note that this math probably overstates the capital required for an incremental vehicle because a portion of capex is for long-dated projects like autonomous data centers and Tesla’s vertically integrated cell factory. In 2020, Tesla spent $3.16 billion on capex, putting capital efficiency in 2021 at $10,330 assuming a 60% increase in vehicle production. In 2019, Tesla spent $1.33 billion on capital expenditures (capex) and produced 509,737 vehicles, an increase of 144,505 vehicles from the previous year, suggesting that its capex per incremental vehicle produced was roughly $9,200. Previously we estimated that Tesla would spend $11,000-$16,000 per incremental unit of capacity in 2024. Since our 2024 analysis, we have increased our assumptions for Tesla’s capital efficiency. We increased the probability of Tesla achieving fully autonomous driving within five years.We added assumptions for a human-driven ride-hail service.We added Tesla’s insurance business to our model.We refined our estimates for Tesla’s capital efficiency.We pushed our forecast price target forward one year to 2025.
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